ADR Average daily Range Indicator Forex Factory

New to Trading? Here's some tips

So there seems to be a lot of new people on this sub. And makes sense if you have questions a lot of time you'll turn to reddit for the answers (I know I do). Well here are some tips that I think would benefit new traders.
  1. Don't trade ANY Euro pairs. Look I know it's the most traded pair it goes up and down really fast and there's so much potential for you to make money. Turns out there's even more for you to lose money. It's way too volatile specially if you don't know what you're doing. EUUSD is the worst offender.
  2. Trade the Daily. Might think you're cool looking at charts every x amount of times during the day. You get to tell your friends and family that you trade all day and they might be impressed at what you're doing but unless you have some years under you stick to the daily. There's less noise. You can see clearer trends and when you don't stare at the screen all day you're less emotional therefore a more effective trader. I only look at the chart 15 minutes a day to either enter close or manage my trades. Whatever happens when I'm gone is what happens.
  3. There is no holy grail indicator Look for it all you want. It doesn't exist. There are good indicators. There are bad indicators. There are some indicators that are so broken if you do the opposite of what they're intended for you'll actually make a profit. But the fact remains that there's no perfect one. Stop looking. What you should be looking for is an indicator that fits with your strategy.
  4. What currencies to pick. I actually never see this brought up. The notion in forex is that all pairs can be traded equally. To a certain extent that's not false. But until you get the hang of it stick to a strict trading diet. Look for pairs that trend a lot. Duh look for the trend I can hear you say. When I say trend I don't mean a couple of days or weeks. I mean a couple of months. Half a year. Pairs that do that have a higher tendency to stick with one direction for a while. That's where you make your money. An easy way to identify those pairs as well is putting together a volatile currency (USD) with a less volatile one(JPY).
  5. USE YOUR SL Trust me even if not putting a SL has netted you all kinds of gains eventually the market will turn around and bite you. With no safety net you'll lose most if not all your profit. The best offense is a good defense.
  6. How to pick your TP and SL level. Most new traders care so much about that. I put it near the bottom because in my opinion you should know everything listed first. This is my opinion and I use it for my strategy I use the ATR(average true range) indicator. It's a really helpful tool that helps you identify the range at which the candles will either rise or fall. Obviously you want to set your TP inside of that range and your SL slightly outside of it.
  7. Lot sizes. Everyone has a different story about how they pick their lot size. The general consensus is don't risk over 2% of your account. But I'm a simple man and I can't be bothered to figure out what my risk is every single time. So what I do is I put $0.10 for every $100 I have on the account. I then assign $300(minimum) to each pair. That's $0.30 per pair. It's easy to remember. 10 cent for every $100. If you're able to blow $100 with $0.10 then you probably shouldn't trade.
  8. How to avoid reversals. Tbh you can't. There's no way to predict the future so eventually you'll get hit by one. What you can do however is minimize the blow. How I do it is for every pair I take two trades. If you remember in the previous tip is said I do about$0.30 per pair well I divide it 2:1. I take one trade with a TP(2) and one without (1). If my TP is hit I pocket that amount and if the trend keeps going in my direction I make even more. If the trend decides to end or reverses my losses are minimal because at least I kept half.
  9. There is NO right way to trade. Stop listening to people telling the best way to trade is fundamentals or naked charts of to use some specific indicator. There are no right way to do this. It's as flexible and unlimited as your imagination. I personally use indicators but if that's not your thing do YOU! Just remember to manage your trades properly and be level headed when trading. Hell if your trading strategy is flipping a coin with proper trade management you'd probably make some money (don't quote me on that).
  10. Trade money you're willing to lose Don't trade your rent money.
That's all I have for now. If anyone sees this and wants to add more feel free. Hope this helps someone.
submitted by MannyTrade to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital

Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital


Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital


Ever wonder why when you trade your stop gets tagged? Although you put it in a spot where "There's no way price will want to reach my stop level for sure this time"
As a trader, particularly a new trader – I've always wondered why my stops were only tagged for the price of running briefly the area that I've ever so carefully researched ... hit my stop point ..... then move on in the direction of my original study and run to the point where my profit should have been taken.
Everything leaving me wondering ...... In the hell for what did this do??? Obviously this is a common issue that has plagued most traders. At least, I know that I have faced this very problem for years.

What I noticed was that there was a very distinctive pattern going on, and it was repeating itself again and again. I noticed that the traditional supply and demand theory, support and resistance zones, or double top / double bottom trading patterns that I have been told time and time again that price has always covered these regions, was not really a real thing.

The argument had been, ..... Put me into the shoes of the major investment banks vs. the home-trading fighter who was going to conquer the markets every day. If you were a large company with an infinite supply of money and you decided to bring a massive chunk of it into the game, you can't just dump the whole lot into the game and demand all your orders to be filled out at once, then take off the price in the direction you want .... no ..... That is not exactly the way it operates.All these major organizations need to do is pair orders.

And they match that order by sending the markets to areas where liquidity is high .... The stops AKA!

Let 's say you 're evaluating the markets, for example, and deciding that price wants to go higher than an old regular target as it's in a bullish uptrend at the moment. And you see price for the past day, or so, not willing to go any lower.
What looks like a bit of a demand shelf or support level where the demand is all in a nice tight clustered row that just doesn't seem to want to go down and you know for sure this time price won't go under that heavily protected area ..... only for the price to run down quickly and refuse to go up (in this case a long position).
And I started to note that these "secure zones" or places where price is certainly not going to come up / down to be simply used by these large entities as feeding grounds for harvesting liquidity and adding more positions to include them in a larger movement.

They need a lot of money to buy in and just to do so, your sell stop is great. Many traders put their stops below this tight pack range of candles a few pips / ticks / cents believing they 're secure as price obviously doesn't want to come down below them. And most traders have their positions liquidated by the hungry major capital banks to feed the whole push higher than you were originally right about.

And how can you stop this pitfall happening to you is the million-dollar question? There are a few ways to handle this and keep your hard-earned money from being ripped away from you in an moment, which you have at risk in the markets.

Stop-Hunting and the Hunger For New Capital

I found that you would do much better in your trading career if you look at these areas (in the above example a long position) as a chance rather than a safe zone to put your stop. What I mean by that is, anticipate them coming down under those equal lows and try to get far below it instead of getting long above the area of consolidation. Yeah, that means you're going to have to go long when the competition runs against you and I know , I know, it feels really uncomfortable and wrong and goes against all you've been taught ... but believe me that this approach can give you the very best possible entries.
Imagine: getting into the day 's low and riding price action all the way up to the top of everyday scale!!! Wouldn't this be terrific?

Well, if your quantitative skills are timely and your business research tells you to go a long way, then all you need to do is wait for the perfect entry. Let the price build up and create "demand shelf" or support areas for that. Let the market shift sideways and bounce around like a pinball mocking all the other traders who were at the top of these stuff for a long time and put their stops just below them in hopes that the price would not come down and stop them. All the while playing with and holding their emotions on the cliff of –Will this be a winner, or a trade loser? So when price does the unimaginable and runs below the support area and scoops up all the traders stops you can then go long and take part in the glorious upside of being right – and of course make some money doing it.

Notice facile? Well, that is not so. It takes patience and timing and experience to catch all those eager participants who keep their stops on a silver platter for the fat and thirsty banks to suck them up, as the markets normally send price south of the border.
Stop-Loss and the Hunger For New Capital (meme)

You have to define the times of the day when the wrong move is made apparent.
Or when they make that low of the day – typically within the 1st 1 – 4 hours
of the trading day, and I don't mean either when the banks come online at 8 a.m. NY.
I mean 12 am, at the beginning of the day.
So yes you 're definitely going to have to be awake if you like watching
price do its thing and don't trust the process of buying into those down candles.
And use a limit order like me-then go to sleep and trust your overall analysis to be right and wake up to your morning with a nice little start.
But the trick is-where are you going to shop under the lows?

And where does your stop then go when you buy?

Those are all interesting questions that I should seek to answer clearly here – but alas, all markets are different.

Yet general rule of thumb as follows:

  1. You should predict that such stop-sweeps will occur in grades 5 and 10. The average is usually about 10, cents, pips, ticks or otherwise. The bigger the step down the more likely it is not a stop raid and potentially a reversal of the pattern. And you can prevent too much danger and keep the stop fairly secure.
Your stop will need to go low on the 1hr map below the next move. As a minimum, and yes, that may mean a greater risk level that you are usually prepared to take.
However if that is the case then try to turn your power back.
You don't need to make every trade worth a million dollars.
This is about continuity, when dealing, not winning the draw.
In your research you need to be sure the price will push higher as this is how the overall trend directions point it.
I am not recommending trade in these types of trades against the trend.
You need to be in full agreement with the direction of the total daily level.
And bringing it in.

Also, a great way to place the maximum risk reward for your take profit:

Attempt to position it in places above the market where short-sellers will stop.

And in a nutshell, with a bit of analysis, all the knowledge I described above can be readily found, I didn't come up with it on my own and these ideas are not unique. Yet how you adapt them to your particular trading style is up to you and relies on your interpretation of these principles for your success and/or failure. Price is fractal and would want to return to markets it has previously sold before – if you accept the basic fact you ought to be doing very well in your business career.

Eva " Forex " Canares .
Cheers and Profitable Trading to All.

About FTMO -
They fund forex traders. Just Pass their risk management rules and begin trading for their company. They'll provide you capital up to $300k USD for trading the financial markets. 70% of profits you keep and losses are covered by them. How does it work?
How to Become a Funded Forex ,Stocks or CryptoCurrency Trader?
submitted by Eva_Canares to FTMO_Forex_Trading [link] [comments]

I am a professional Day Trader working for a Prop Fund, Hope I can help people out and answer some questions

Howdy all, I work professionally for a proprietary trading fund, and have worked for quite a few in my time, hope I can offer some insights on trading etc you guys might have.
Bonus for you guys
Here are the columns in my trading journal and various explanations where appropriate:
Trade Number – Simply is this the first trade of the year? The 10th?, The 50th? I count a trade
that you opened and closed just one trade number. For example if you buy EUUSD today and
sell it 50 pips later in the day and close out the trade, then that is just one trade for recording
purposes. I do not create a second trade number to describe the exit. Both the entry and exit are
under the same trade number.


Ticket Number – This is ticket number / order ID number that your broker gives you for the trade
on your platform.


Day of the Week – This would be simply the day of the week the trade was initiated


Financial Instrument / Currency Pair – Whatever Financial Instrument or currency pair you are
trading. If you are trading EUUSD, put EUUSD. If you are trading the EuroFX futures
contract, then put in Euro FX. If you are trading the emini S&P, then put in Emini S&P 500. If
you are trading a stock, put in the ticker symbol. Etc.


Buy/Sell or Long/Short – Did you buy or sell to open the new trade? If you bought something to
open the trade, then write in either BUY or LONG. If you sold(shorted) something to open a
trade, then write in SOLD, or SHORT. This is a personal preference. Some people like to put in
their journals as BUY/SELL. Other people like to write in Long/Short. My preference is for
writing in long/short, since that is the more professional way to say it. I like to use the lingo
where possible.


Order Type – Market or Limit – When you entered the trade was it a market order or limit order?
Some people can enter a trade using a combination of market and limit orders. If you enter a
trade for $1 million half of which was market order and the other half was limit order, then you
can write in $500,000 Market, $500,000 Limit as a bullet points.


Position Size / Units / Contracts / Shares – How big was the total trade you entered? If you
bought 1 standard lot of a currency pair, then write in $100,000 or 1 standard lot. If you bought 5
gold futures contracts, then write in 5 contracts. If you bought 1,000 shares of stock, then write
in 1,000 shares. Etc.


Entry Price – The entry price you received entering your opening position. If you entered at
multiple prices, then you can either write in all the different fills you got, or specify the average
price received.


Entry Date – Date that you entered the position. For example January 23, 2012. Or you can
write in 1/23/12

.
Entry Time – Time that you opened the position. If it is multiple positions, then you can specify
each time for each various fill, or you can specify the time range. For example if you got
$100,000 worth of EUUSD filled at 3:00 AM EST, and another $100,000 filled at 3:05 and
another $100,000 filled at 3:25, then you can write all those in, or you can specify a range of 3:00
– 3:30 AM EST.


Entry Spread Cost (in pips) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in
pips. If you executed a market order, how many pips did you pay in spread.


Entry Spread Cost (in dollars) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in
dollars. If you executed a market order, how many dollars did you pay in spread.


Stop Loss Size – How big is your stop loss size? If you are trading a currency pair, then you
write in the pips. If you are trading the S&P futures contract, then write in the number of points.
If you are trading a stock, then write in how many cents or dollars your stop is away from your
entry price.


% Risk – If you were to get stopped out of the trade, how much % loss of your equity is that?
This is where you input your risk per trade expressed in % terms if you use such a position sizing
method. If you risked 0.50% of your account on the trade, then put in 0.50%


Risk in dollars – If you were to get stopped out of the trade, how much loss in dollars is that. For
example if you have a $100,000 account and you risked 1% on a trade, then write in $1,000
dollars


Potential Reward: Risk Ratio – This is a column that I only sometimes fill in. You write in what
the potential reward risk ratio of the trade is. If you are trading using a 100 pip stop and you
expect that the market can reasonably move 300 pips, then you can write in 3:1. Of course this is
an interesting column because you can look at it after the trade is finished and see how close you
were or how far removed from reality your initial projections were.


Potential Win Rate – This is another column that I only sometimes fill in. You write in what you
believe the potential win rate of this trade is. If you were to place this trade 10 times in a row,
how many times do you think you would win? I write it in as percentage terms. If you believe
the trade has a 50% chance to win, then write in 50%.


Type of Inefficiency – This is where you write in what type of inefficiency you are looking to
capture. I use the word inefficiency here. I believe it is important to think of trading setups as
inefficiencies. If you think in terms of inefficiencies, then you will think in terms of the market
being mispriced, then you will think about the reasons why the market is mispriced and why such
market expectations for example are out of alignment with reality. In this category I could write
in different types of trades such as fading the stops, different types of news trades, expecting
stops to get tripped, betting on sentiment intensifying, betting on sentiment reversing, etc. I do
not write in all the reasons why I took the trade in this column. I do that in another column. This
column is just to broadly define what type of inefficiency you are looking to capture.


Chart Time Frame – I do not use this since all my order flow based trades have nothing to do
with what chart time frame I look at. However, if you are a chartist or price action trader, then
you may want to include what chart time frame you found whatever pattern you were looking at.


Exit Price – When you exit your trade, you enter the price you received here.


Exit Date – The date you exited your trade.


Exit Time – The time you exited your trade.


Trade Duration – In hours, minutes, days or weeks. If the trade lasts less than an hour, I will
usually write in the duration in minutes. Anything in between 1 and 48 hours, I write in the hours
amount. Anything past that and I write it as days or weeks as appropriate, etc.
Pips the trade went against you before turning into a winner – If you have a trade that suffered a
draw down, but did not stop you out and eventually was a winner, then you write it how many
pips the trade went against you before it turned into a profitable trade. The reason you have this
column is to compare it to your stop loss size and see any patterns that emerge. If you notice that
a lot of your winning trades suffer a big draw down and get near your stop loss points but turn out
to be a profitable trade, then you can further refine your entry strategy to get in a better price.


Slippage on the Exit – If you get stopped out for a loss, then you write in how many pips you
suffered as slippage, if any. For example if you are long EUUSD at 1.2500 and have your stop
loss at 1.2400 and the market drops and you get filled at 1.2398, then you would write in -2 pips
slippage. In other words you lost 2 pips as slippage. This is important for a few different
reasons. Firstly, you want to see if the places you put your stop at suffer from slippage. If they
do, perhaps you can get better stop loss placement, or use it as useful information to find new
inefficiencies. Secondly, you want to see how much slippage your broker is giving you. If you
are trading the same system with different brokers, then you can record the slippage from each
one and see which has the lowest slippage so you can choose them.


Profit/Loss -You write in the profit and/or loss in pips, cents, points, etc as appropriate. If you
bought EUUSD at 1.2500 and sell it at 1.2550, you made 50 pips, so write in +50 pips. If you
bought a stock at $50 and you sell it at $60, then write in +$10. If you buy the S&P futures at
1,250 and sell them at 1,275, then write in +25 points. If you buy the GBP/USD at 1.5000 and
you sell it at 1.4900, then write in -100 pips. Etc. I color code the box background to green for
profit and red for loss.


Profit/Loss In Dollars – You write the profit and/or loss in dollars (or euros, or jpy, etc whatever
currency your account is denominated in). If you are long $100,000 of EUUSD at 1.2500 and
sell it at 1.2600, then write in +$1,000. If you are short $100,000 GBP/USD at 1.5900 and it
rises to 1.6000 and you cover, then write in -$1,000. I color code the box background to green
for profit and red for loss.


Profit/Loss as % of your account – Write in the profit and/or loss as % of your account. If a trade
made you 2% of your account, then write in +2%. If a trade lost 0.50%, then write in -0.50%. I
color code the box background to green for profit and red for loss.


Reward:Risk Ratio or R multiple: If the trade is a profit, then write in how many times your risk
did it pay off. If you risked 0.50% and you made 1.00%, then write in +2R or 2:1 or 2.0. If you
risked 0.50% and a trade only makes 0.10%, then write in +0.20R or 0.2:1 or 0.2. If a trade went
for a loss that is equal to or less than what you risked, then I do not write in anything. If the loss
is greater than the amount you risked, then I do write it in this column. For example lets say you
risk 0.50% on a stock, but overnight the market gaps and you lose 1.50% on a trade, then I would
write it in as a -3R.


What Type of trading loss if the trade lost money? – This is where I describe in very general
terms a trade if it lost money. For example, if I lost money on a trade and the reason was because
I was buying in a market that was making fresh lows, but after I bought the market kept on going
lower, then I would write in: “trying to pick a bottom.” If I tried shorting into a rising uptrend
and I take a loss, then I describe it as “trying to pick a top.” If I am buying in an uptrend and buy
on a retracement, but the market makes a deeper retracement or trend change, then I write in
“tried to buy a ret.” And so on and so forth. In very general terms I describe it. The various
ways I use are:
• Trying to pick a bottom
• Trying to pick a top
• Shorting a bottom
• Buying a top
• Shorting a ret and failed
• Wrongly predicted news
• Bought a ret and failed
• Fade a resistance level
• Buy a support level
• Tried to buy a breakout higher
• Tried to short a breakout lower
I find this category very interesting and important because when performing trade journal
analysis, you can notice trends when you have winners or losing trades. For example if I notice a
string of losing trades and I notice that all of them occur in the same market, and all of them have
as a reason: “tried to pick a bottom”, then I know I was dumb for trying to pick a bottom five
times in a row. I was fighting the macro order flow and it was dumb. Or if I notice a string of
losers and see that I tried to buy a breakout and it failed five times in a row, but notice that the
market continued to go higher after I was stopped out, then I realize that I was correct in the
move, but I just applied the wrong entry strategy. I should have bought a retracement, instead of
trying to buy a fresh breakout.


That Day’s Weaknesses (If any) – This is where I write in if there were any weaknesses or
distractions on the day I placed the trade. For example if you are dead tired and place a trade,
then write in that you were very tired. Or if you place a trade when there were five people
coming and out of your trading office or room in your house, then write that in. If you placed the
trade when the fire alarm was going off then write that in. Or if you place a trade without having
done your daily habits, then write that in. Etc. Whatever you believe was a possible weakness
that threw you off your game.


That Day’s Strengths (If any) – Here you can write in what strengths you had during the day you
placed your trade. If you had complete peace and quiet, write that in. If you completed all your
daily habits, then write that in. Etc. Whatever you believe was a possible strength during the
day.


How many Open Positions Total (including the one you just placed) – How many open trades do
you have after placing this one? If you have zero open trades and you just placed one, then the
total number of open positions would be one, so write in “1.” If you have on three open trades,
and you are placing a new current one, then the total number of open positions would be four, so
write in “4.” The reason you have this column in your trading journal is so that you can notice
trends in winning and losing streaks. Do a lot of your losing streaks happen when you have on a
lot of open positions at the same time? Do you have a winning streak when the number of open
positions is kept low? Or can you handle a lot of open positions at the same time?


Exit Spread Cost (in pips) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in pips.
If you executed a market order, how many pips did you pay in spread.


Exit Spread Cost (in dollars) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in
dollars. If you executed a market order, how many dollars did you pay in spread.


Total Spread Cost (in pips) – You write in the total spread cost of the entry and exit in pips.


Total Spread Cost (in dollars) – You write in the total spread cost of the entry and exit in dollars.


Commission Cost – Here you write in the total commission cost that you incurred for getting in
and out of the trade. If you have a forex broker that is commission free and only gets
compensated through the spread, then you do not need this column.


Starting Balance – The starting account balance that you had prior to the placing of the trade


Interest/swap – If you hold forex currency pairs past the rollover, then you either get interest or
need to pay out interest depending on the rollover rates. Or if you bought a stock and got a
dividend then write that in. Or if you shorted a stock and you had to pay a dividend, then write
that in.


Ending Balance – The ending balance of your account after the trade is closed after taking into
account trade P&L, commission cost, and interest/swap.


Reasons for taking the trade – Here is where you go into much more detail about why you placed
the trade. Write out your thinking. Instead of writing a paragraph or two describing my thinking
behind the trade, I condense the reasons down into bullet points. It can be anywhere from 1-10
bullet points.


What I Learned – No matter if the trade is a win or loss, write down what you believed you
learned. Again, instead of writing out a paragraph or two, I condense it down into bullet points. it
can be anywhere from 1-10 bullet points. I do this during the day the trade closed as a profit or
loss.


What I learned after Long Term reflection, several days, weeks, or months – This is the very
interesting column. This is important because after you have a winning or losing trade, you will
not always know the true reasons why it happened. You have your immediate theories and
reasons which you include in the previous column. However, there are times when after several
days, weeks, or months, you find the true reason and proper market belief about why your trade
succeeded or failed. It can take a few days or weeks or months to reach that “aha” moment. I am
not saying that I am thinking about trades I placed ten months ago. I try to forget about them and
focus on the present moment. However, there will be trades where you have these nagging
questions about they failed or succeeded and you will only discover those reasons several days,
weeks, or months later. When you discover the reasons, you write them in this column.
submitted by Fox-The-Wise to Forex [link] [comments]

What is Forex?

Forex is the short way of saying “Foreign Exchange”. This means the global market for exchanging international currencies, also known as the FX market. When someone prices or exchanges a currency against another, the exchange rate is best on the particular forex trading pair (i.e., both currencies involved in the pair).
Currency pairs are typically priced out to four decimal places, depending on the currency denomination, where one ten-thousandth of a unit of currency is known as a pip (i.e., 0.0001 unit), which is the smallest price increment (in addition to fractional-pips).
The EUUSD, which is the most widely-traded forex pair, is an example of the Euro (EUR) currency against the US dollars (USD) currency.
When trading one unit of EUUSD, you can calculate the price in USD (i.e., a price of EUUSD 1.3000 indicates $1.30 per euro). Conversely, when exchanging the USD/EUR, each unit of USD (i.e. each dollar) will have the prace of a specific number of euros (i.e., a USD/EUR price of 0.7700 indicates €0.77 per dollar).
A speculator expecting the price of the EUUSD to go up. He will buy the EUUSD pair long (buying a pair to open a trade can be a bullish or long position). Whereas, a speculator anticipating a drop in the price of the EUUSD may sell the pair. (bearish or short position: selling to open a trade).

Largest international market Globally

The forex market is decentralized across the globe. It consists of dealers such as central banks, private and public banks, non-bank intermediaries, brokerages, and large corporations such as insurance giants and other participants engaged in international finance.
The Foreign Exchange market is the largest globally, with nearly $6 trillion in average daily volume traded as of April 2019, according to the latest BIS Triennial Survey of Central Banks.
The FX market suffers the influence mainly by each government’s monetary policy, the supply, and demand of the global economy. As well as international trade agreements, and users and suppliers of currencies (hedgers), in addition to speculators.

Market integrity and progress

While there have been cases of forex market manipulation by the biggest banks and dealers in the past, the amount of influence any one entity can have on the prices of major currencies is negligible. This resistance to serious manipulation risk is due to the enormous amount of trading and resulting liquidity available.
The FX Market itself has high price integrity. Because it is an electronic market, efficient and with a certain size. Participants must still adhere to best practices.
Efforts such as the Global FX code were launched to encourage forex dealers to uphold the best-execution where the best price available is given to traders.
These efforts are why the spreads and trading commissions continued to improve over the years, as the FX market evolved. In addition, regulators have competed to increase local market integrity and efficiency by creating more strict regulations. These come from the top-tier financial centers such as the US, UK, Singapore, Japan, Australia, among other advanced economies.

Investing and trading in the forex market

As an asset class, Forex is well-established and offered by many regulated brokerages from within a margin account.
The use of leverage is what makes forex trading more risky than non-margin investing.
Margin-based trading used by investors as well as self-directed traders and fund managers, thanks to the range of risk-management tools available within forex trading platforms (mobile, web, and desktop software). Wiseinvest provides trading signals with risk-management.

Forex market research and analysis

There are two primary ways for traders to assess and identify trading opportunities in the forex market.

Advanced forex trading strategies and algorithms

The foundation of successful trading in the forex market is having a trading strategy. It’s based on a specific methodology that best suits your trading needs. Strategies could be manual, automated, or a combination of both.
Over the past decade, there has been a proliferation of automated trading strategies made available for retail traders.
And while there are many serious traders with established track records for their trading systems, there are many more low-quality trading systems falsely marketed as high-quality by overly eager affiliates, making it harder for investors to navigate the market for trading signals.
There has also been an increase in the social copy trade. Where an operator can mimic other operators’ businesses in real time.
Whether using a copy-trading platform or an automated trading system, in almost all cases, this type of investing is considered self-directed and doesn’t require a power-of-attorney or another third-party money manager to handle your account.
Unlike other copy and social trading platforms, Wiseinvet’s AI has the ability to execute a huge set of market data. It does by combining technical and fundamental analysis. This strategy can increase the accuracy of trading signals.

Self-directed forex investors

Compared to investing in a managed fund, there is greater responsibility. Traders put it on self-directed traders who use trading systems. A self-directed trader should conduct more detailed due diligence. It can avoid falling for the countless low-quality trading systems that exist on the internet.

There are no guarantees that a strategy will perform well. But conducting proper due diligence can help traders assess various trading systems. They consider using them to aid their trading or investment strategy.
submitted by Wiseinvest-ai to u/Wiseinvest-ai [link] [comments]

The XTRD Megathread

What is XTRD?

XTRD is a technology company that are introducing a new infrastructure that would allow banks, hedge funds, and large institutional traders to easily access cryptocurrency markets.
XTRD is launching three separate products in sequential stages to solve the ongoing problems caused by having so many disparate markets. Firstly a unified FIX API followed by XTRD Dark Pools and finally the XTRD Single Point of Access or SPA.
Our goal is to build trading infrastructure in the cyptospace and become one of the first full service shops in the cryptocurrency markets for large traders and funds.

What are the industry issues?

COMPLEX WEB OF EXCHANGES. A combination of differing KYC policies, means of funding, interfaces and APIs results in a fragmented patchwork of liquidity for cryptocurrencies. Trading in an automated fashion with full awareness of best pricing and current liquidity necessitates the opening and use of accounts on multiple exchanges, coding to multiple API’s, following varying funding and withdrawal procedures. Once those hurdles are cleared, market participants must convert fiat currency to BTC or ETH and then forward the ETH on to an exchange that may not accept fiat, necessitating yet another transaction to convert back to fiat. Major concerns for market participants range from unmitigated slippage and counterparty risk to hacking prevention and liquidity.
HIGH FEES. Execution costs are even more of a factor. Typical exchange commissions are in the 0.1% – 0.25% range per transaction (10 to 25 basis points), but the effective fees are much higher when taking into bid and ask spreads maintained by the exchanges. As most exchanges are unregulated, there is generally no central authority or regulator to examine internal exchange orders that separate proprietary activity from customer activity and ensure fair pricing.
THIN LIQUIDITY. A large institutional order, representing a sizable percentage of daily volume can move the market for a product, and related products in an exchange by a factor of 5-10%. That means a single order to buy $1,000,000 worth of bitcoin can cost an extra $50,000-$100,000 per transaction given a lack of liquidity if not managed correctly and executed on only one exchange. By way of comparison, similar trades on FX exchanges barely move markets a fraction of a percent; those price changes cost traders money, and deter investment.

What are the XTRD solutions?

FIX API
An API is an “Application Programming Interface”, a set of rules that computer programs use to communicate. FIX stands for “Financial Information eXchange”, the API standard used by most financial organizations as the intermediary protocol to communicate amongst disparate systems such as market data, execution, trade reporting, and order entry for the past 25 years.XTRD is fixing the problem of having 100 different APIs for 100 exchanges by creating a single FIX based API for market data and execution – the same FIX API that all current financial institutions utilize.XTRD will leverage our data center presences in DC3 Chicago and NY4 New Jersey to host FIX trading clients and reduce their trading latencies to single milliseconds, a time acceleration of 100x when it comes to execution vs internet. More infrastructure and private worldwide internet lines will be added in 2018 and beyond to enable secure, low latency execution for all XTRD clients, FIX and PRO.
XTRD PRO
XTRD PRO is a professional trading platform that will fix the basic problems with trading across crypto exchanges – the need to open multiple web pages, having to click around multiple windows, only being able to use basic order types, and not seeing all your positions, trades, and market data in one place.XTRD PRO will be standalone, downloadable, robust end-to-end encrypted software that will consolidate all market data from exchanges visually into one order book, provide a consolidated position and order view across all your exchange accounts, and enable client side orders not available on exchanges – keyboard macro shortcuts, VWAP/TWAP, shaving the bid and offer, hit through 1% of the inside, reserve orders that bid 100 but show 1, SMART order routing to best exchange and intelligent order splicing across exchanges based on execution costs net of fees, OCO and OTO, many others.
XTRD SPA
XTRD SPA is the solution to bridge cross-exchange liquidity issues. XTRD is creating Joint Venture partnerships with trusted cryptocurrency exchanges to provide clients on those exchanges execution across other exchanges where they do not have accounts by leveraging XTRD’s liquidity pools.An order placed by a client at CEX.IO, XTRD’s first JV partner, can be executed by XTRD at a different exchange where there may be a better price or higher liquidity for a digital asset. Subsequently, XTRD will deliver the position to CEX.IO and then CEX.IO will deliver the execution to the client, with XTRD acting as just another market participant at the CEX.IO exchange.XTRD does not take custody of funds, we are a technology partner with exchanges. All local exchange rules, procedures, and AML/KYC policies apply.
XTRD DARK
Institutions and large market participants who have large orders of 100 BTC or more generally must execute across multiple markets, increasing their counterparty risk, paying enormous commissions and spreads, and generally having to deal with the vagaries of the crypto space. Alternatives are OTC brokers that charge multiple percents or private peer-to-peer swaps which are difficult to effectuate unless one is deeply in the space.XTRD is launching XTRD DARK – a dark liquidity pool to trade crypto vs fiat that matches buyers and sellers of large orders, discreetly and anonymously, at a much lower cost. Liquidity is not displayed so large orders do not move thin markets as they would publicly. The liquidity will come from direct XTRD DARK participants as well as aggregation of retail order flow into block orders, XTRD’s own liquidity pools, connections with decentralized exchanges to effectuate liquidity swaps, and OTC broker order flow.XTRD is partnering with a fiat banking providebroker dealer to onboard all XTRD DARK participants for the fiat currency custody side with full KYC/AML procedures.

XTRD Tokenomics

Who is XTRD intended for?

XTRD is mainly aimed at major institutions, hedge funds, algorithmic traders who are currently unable to enter the crypto markets.
These firms include companies such as Divisa Capital run by XTRD Advisor Mushegh Tovmasyan.

XTRD Weekly Updates

Upcoming Events

AMA's

Further AMA's will be coming soon!

XTRD In The Media

Resources

More information will be added to this thread as the project develops.
We are currently looking for key community members to assist in building out this thread.
If you are interested please email [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
submitted by tylerbro77 to XtradeIO [link] [comments]

GBP/USD Technical & Sentiment Analysis (16 Feb 2014)

Hey guys. I don't usually do GBP/USD, but it's suddenly become one of the most interesting pairs in my opinion, because I believe some very big moves are afoot. I'm going to mostly be looking at the long term view in the context of market positioning, so this might not be all that helpful for scalpers ;)
I want to start with the Daily FX SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) reading for GBP/USD, which is quite something: http://i.imgur.com/pFcbIij.png (© 2014 DailyFX)
There are 9 traders short for every one long. Basically the entire retail crowd is betting against the trend. This means that the majority of orders in the market will be stop losses near current levels.
Also worth a watch is John Kicklighter's video for the week, focusing on the S&P and GBP/USD: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2014/02/14/Forex_Weighing_Reversals_for_SP_500_USDollar_GBPUSD.html
For those new to this kind of thing, sentiment analysis is just analysis using what you can know about market positioning, and how the market generally "feels" about a currency pair. Usually SSI gives quite reliable indications of when a trend will continue, because the majority of retail traders will start betting against it. Their stops add fuel to the fire when it continues. (This is also why I'm short AUD/USD - 2 traders long to every 1 short. Not extreme yet, but it means there are lots of stops below).
Before I get into too much detail there, here's the weekly chart: http://i.imgur.com/Ef4VRQf.png
(Yes I'm long)
I've put some tentative levels there, but I'll do more precise ones in a minute. As you can see, price is breaking out of a long term wedge. It hasn't quite cleared the range yet, and 1.700 is a massive wall to get over. There will be enormous interest at this level, not to mention some extremely large option barriers.
But I think it will break it eventually. Why I think it will go higher? Well, market positioning for one, but also this:
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/market-news/24551832014/sterling-at-fresh-3-year-highs-eyes-more-gains/?cid=0000215115
Good analysis piece pointing out that GBP/USD is only about 6% away from the 200WMA. Deviations from this average have historically been much larger. Since price is clearly moving away from this level, I believe we can expect quite a large move as the market unwinds its short positioning.
A look at Oanda's orderbook (or the order boards posted at ForexLive) can give us a more precise view of where these orders are sitting:
http://i.imgur.com/FEn4h3O.png
Current Positioning & Open Orders
As you can see the market is severely short, mostly from the last 100 pips or so. 1.6600 is an area where a lot of positions, both long and short, were established.
There are clusters of buy stops above 1.6700 (small), 1.6750 (bigger) and then above 1.6900 there are two large clusters of buy stops.
Further, there are more buy stops above current price than there are sell orders, meaning that there is ample room for price to continue higher. They're mixed in with some mid-weight sell orders around 1.6800, so this is a level that should provide resistance.
Going a bit lower, we find that bids (both those wanting to initiate new positions and those wanting to take profits on short positions) should provide extreme levels of support.
These are in at about every 10-15 pips between 1.6600 and 1.6500, with the largest cluster being at 1.6500. Going on this alone, buying any dips below 1.66 looks really good.
Beware the retracement
Bear in mind that there are sell stops below 1.6700 - these are the weaker longs or those wishing to enter short on a break below the figure. These could accelerate a correction down to 1.6650 quite quickly.
Here's the 4hr chart, with the largest bids and offers put in. You'll notice that they line up quite nicely with just about any other method of calculating S&R. Dashed lines are larger orders, dotted ones smaller. The big box is where there are too many orders to make lines for :P
http://i.imgur.com/C1htngr.png
Hopefully that's helpful.
Now, there's also a fundamental component to consider. The UK's recovery is looking fairly solid, while the market is very quickly losing its patience with the greenback. Over the last quarter my bullish USD bias has evaporated, as it was predicated on the market not having priced in the full effects of the taper. Now that it appears this is not the case, I have no choice but to change my USD bias to neutral/bearish. The recent soft data also indicates that the recovery is lagging that of the UK's quite badly. The market's reaction to positive US data is generally muted, and when something can't rally on good news, it's usually bad news.
Another thing to note is that the DJ FXCM Dollar Index declined throughout the last dip and recovery in the S&P - one of the longest sustained bearish moves in history. It was only half the magnitude of the other declines of this length, but most other 6-7 day consecutive declines in the dollar have preceded much greater bear waves, not recoveries. The logical thing to do is to look for a USD bounce and sell it.
We need look no further than the S&P to see what's happening here:
http://i.imgur.com/YrCT8tA.png (4hr chart with GBP/USD overlaid in white)
Sterling not quite a safe-haven yet. If 1850 goes in S&P, expect GBP/USD to continue higher. However, Daily RSI on both is currently showing bearish divergence (shown on charts - it's a daily RSI despite it being a 4hr chart)
This means that we might head slightly lower before bouncing. Trend line support for the S&P comes in at around 1775, which would imply quite a serious fall in Cable before buyers really step in.
The level I really like? 1.6475 There is a large cluster of buy orders just below 1.6500, which I believe is where the smart money is looking to enter. This move would flush out a lot of weak longs, leaving plenty of space for new positions. Sellers will also be taking a lot of profits off here, giving us a very good chance of a bounce. From there all it will take is a move back above 1.660 to really get moving.
So longer term I would look to start long positions between 1.6600 and 1.6475, with stops below 1.6250 or the 100DMA
Targets would be completely open. I will look to exit the position if and when speculative sentiment drops back to more natural levels, or perhaps even reverses. Stops will be trailed to lock in profit, but not aggressively.
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

Target Trading in the Forex upcoming week of July 21st ,2013

$EURUSD What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently sitting @ 1.3152 testing the Day chart trend line in a wedge. We are waiting to see if we get a break out up since the structure says we should sell to the [email protected] 1.2806. A break out higher (and an opportunity to sell higher) is at the 1.3183 area. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 119 pips. ——————————————————————————– $USDJPY What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently @ 100.35 in a day chart up trend. Looking for a move all the way to 103.00 and maybe to 103.64. We are looking to buy on dips in the channel to the upside. Watch for the correction at the 102.26 area.The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 116 pips. ——————————————————————————– $GBPUSD What Forex Target Traders See: Cable is currently @ 1.5274. I wrote last week: “Watch for a break of the corrective move for the Resistance @ 1.5274 then a move south”. We are looking now to short to the .500 fibo @ 1.5048 after a head and shoulders. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 149 pips. ——————————————————————————– $AUDUSD – A great smooth currency for Newbie’s! What Forex Target Traders See: Aussie is currently @ 0.9190 at the top of a well-built down trend. We are looking for the wedge break to signal the move down to the S8 (from the pivot point) @ 0.8978. We could go as low as the Day chart bottom @ 0.8778. Don’t rule out a break out north to the 0.9409 area for a square up. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 129 pips.
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Target Trading in the Forex upcoming week of July 28th ,2013

$EURUSD What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently sitting @ 1.3282 and stalled on the 0.214 Fibo. We are waiting to see if we get a break down up since the structure says we should sell to the [email protected] 1.3040. A break out higher (and an opportunity to sell higher) is at the 1.3418 area. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 110 pips. ——————————————————————————– $USDJPY What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently @ 98.17 after the break down of the up trend and the wedge. Looking for a move to the bottom @ 96.68 with further targets at the S6 @ 95.39. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 122 pips. ——————————————————————————– $GBPUSD What Forex Target Traders See: Cable is currently @ 1.5389. Cannot be sure if this is THE top or A top so on the sidelines until that is known. Certainly we could move higher and create a head and shoulders pattern around 1.5600. Either way we are looking to short when it does come to us. S5 @ 1.5025 is the target if the top is in place S4 @ 1.5162 is the target if we go higher. The average (14 day) daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 128 pips. ——————————————————————————– $AUDUSD – A great smooth currency for Newbie’s! What Forex Target Traders See: Aussie is currently @ 0.9272 and is in a range. Need to sit on the sidelines until it figures itself out. A couple of different scenarios: 1: bullish: a move to square up @ 0.9476. 2: Bearish : A break down here to the S8 @ 0.8979. The average daily true range (ATR) for the pair currently is 126 pips.
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Advance Level Forex Tutorial  ADR & ATR Average Daily and ... Average Daily Range Trading Techniques - YouTube Forex Trading with the Average Daily Range (Part 1) Forex Trading with the Average Daily Range (Part 2) How to read ATR in Forex - Average True Range Indicator Explained How to Trade - Pair Strength and Average Daily Range - Advanced How to Trade - Currency Average Daily Range - Basic

Starting with the main forex pairs, it is clear that the GBP/JPY and GBP/USD pairs both look particularly appealing to short-term traders right now because they both have an average daily trading range of over 100 pips. However much of this volatility is due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, so day traders need to be wary of any breaking news when trading these or any other GBP ... Average Daily Range of Currency Pairs. The Average Daily Range shows the average pip range of a Forex pair measured over a certain number of periods. Traders can use the ADR to visualize potential price action outside the average daily move. When ADR is above average, it means that the daily volatility is higher than usual, which implies that the currency pair may be extending beyond its norm ... Volatility in 2020. Every year I take a look at the average daily trading range of not only the various different currency pairs, but also a variety of other markets such as stock market indices, commodities and cryptocurrencies. Average Daily Range - V4.01.mq4 14 KB 1,331 download Uploaded Aug 2, 2020 5:09am Average Daily Range - V4.01.mq5 18 KB 569 downloads Uploaded Aug 7, 2020 7:42am Have a nice day The average daily range for currency pairs came to my mind a few months after I started forex way back. The reason that I wanted to know that was I didn’t know how to set the size of TPs and SLs for different currency pairs because I didn’t know the personality or volatility of most of them. Its self-compiled, as I use to to plot the actual ranges on my chart and use various levels as targets when in a trade. I'll show a grab so you can see how it looks. We know that a currency has over an 80% chance of hitting its 75% ADR so its useful to see when this happens and how far price is from this point. Will post todays table in a new message. I dont mind doing it daily and it only ... The Most Volatile Currency Pairs Table (data from 01-06-20) The table shows that today the most volatile Forex pairs are exotic ones. Namely, USD/SEK, USD/TRY, and USD/BRL. All of them move on average for more than 400 points per day. The volatility of the major currency pairs is much lower. Only GBP/USD moves for more than 100 points per day.

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Advance Level Forex Tutorial ADR & ATR Average Daily and ...

This part of the software determines which currency is most out of balance for the traders to be a Buyer/Seller along with the amount of achievable pips remaining in the Average range for the day ... Price has an average daily movement. The software has taken this daily movement and produced an average number of pips that the currency or currency pair can be anticipated to move. By knowing the ... Check Out More FREE Forex Training Videos Here: http://www.compassfx.com/video Forex Trading with the Average Daily Range (Part 2) Trading EURAUD Based on The ADR & Daily Lows and Highs [After] Be sure to Like, Subscribe, and hit that Notification Bell now! ===== JOIN THE ... ADR and ATR 2 words but same thing. ADR means average daily range and ATR means average true range. this is advance level tutorial by Tani. if you understand... Forex Trading with the Average Daily Range (Part 1) Trading EURAUD Based on The ADR & Daily Lows and Highs [Before] Be sure to Like, Subscribe, and hit that Notification Bell now! ===== JOIN ... How to read ATR in Forex - Average True Range Indicator Explained The Average True Range (ATR) is a simple yet very effective technical indicator, developed by the American mechanical engineer J ...

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